Ladenburg Research Networks

Water is one of the most important raw materials on earth. But what if it becomes increasingly scarce as a result of climate change and future weather extremes? As part of the Ladenburg Research Network “Future water conflicts in Germany” (ZuWaKo), an interdisciplinary group of scientists is investigating conflicts regarding the future usage and distribution of water, preservation of water resources, and protection against flooding. The aim is to relieve expected conflict situations in Germany on the basis of possible solutions.

Even in Germany, a country rich in water, local and seasonal water stress could lead to intensified conflict in future, for example between agriculture, industry, energy and water management, and the protection of ecosystems that rely on water. By means of modeling and simulations, researchers are setting out to make interdependencies between the various sectors and interest groups transparent, and to point out possible conflicts of interest.

This subsidized project focuses on the following questions: What influence does climate change have on water conflicts in Germany? How will future strategies and decisions on the part of various social protagonists affect conflict situations? What combinations of strategies and measures can aggravate or mitigate future water conflicts? How can participatory modeling and simulations serve to support protagonists in anticipating conflicts and devising appropriate strategies?

Three case studies of particular relevance to Germany are examined here by way of example. The Jülich Research Center is studying conflicts of aims in a river catchment area under conditions of future climate extremes. The University of Stuttgart is conducting a case study concerned with conflicts in irrigation, particularly of agricultural land and municipal greenery. The Technical University of Freiberg is analyzing (cross-frontier) water conflicts arising in the course of large-scale projects with open-cast lignite mines or their subsequent flooding.

The findings from the case studies contribute to the development of a web application for professional users in science, administration, and practice. The workshop version of this application is being tested by interested protagonists in simulations and in university teaching. The project fundamentally envisages the further development of a participatory, semi-quantitative software-supported approach to system analysis that can be transferred to other topic fields and conflicts of objectives. The conflict field of water is to be made readily experienceable for all protagonists, so that they can find strategies that both conform to the goals and mitigate conflict.